Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 0.431093 0.497332 0.569036 0.652256 0.746011 0.848188 0.967791
2025-06-08 0.334402 0.421009 0.521919 0.647547 0.799071 0.975210 1.194685
2025-06-15 0.277927 0.379651 0.506508 0.674814 0.890534 1.155867 1.504786
2025-06-22 0.213970 0.317707 0.456273 0.652118 0.918493 1.264425 1.743184
2025-06-29 0.168637 0.271924 0.419477 0.641099 0.959955 1.395540 2.027383
2025-07-06 0.132064 0.231388 0.383089 0.624920 0.992206 1.518666 2.316756
2025-07-13 0.111217 0.210636 0.372190 0.644107 1.077684 1.726254 2.748242
2025-07-20 0.090770 0.186156 0.351182 0.644393 1.134827 1.899462 3.149960
2025-07-27 0.076556 0.169483 0.340113 0.659037 1.216567 2.119300 3.646092
2025-08-03 0.065045 0.155234 0.330695 0.674966 1.302492 2.355160 4.191916
2025-08-10 0.051237 0.132812 0.301811 0.651113 1.316604 2.475102 4.562999
2025-08-17 0.039299 0.111071 0.269741 0.615547 1.304336 2.548399 4.863171
2025-08-24 0.031825 0.097906 0.253473 0.610094 1.350796 2.735344 5.388545
2025-08-31 0.025468 0.085507 0.236187 0.599571 1.386283 2.907194 5.906465
2025-09-07 0.021998 0.079822 0.233314 0.620079 1.487659 3.213458 6.699858
2025-09-14 0.017023 0.067867 0.212197 0.595204 1.490668 3.331680 7.155225
2025-09-21 0.013544 0.059168 0.197263 0.582069 1.517136 3.499029 7.720934
2025-09-28 0.010644 0.051127 0.181960 0.564914 1.531931 3.644077 8.256698
2025-10-05 0.009195 0.047799 0.179474 0.580603 1.625286 3.962407 9.167873
2025-10-12 0.007583 0.043038 0.171322 0.579383 1.677871 4.198794 9.931820
2025-10-19 0.006510 0.040055 0.168105 0.591520 1.765344 4.520384 10.901357
2025-10-26 0.005621 0.037459 0.165503 0.605033 1.858271 4.863187 11.944152
2025-11-02 0.004368 0.032241 0.151981 0.582628 1.853940 4.983105 12.513911